Pass Line vs Don’t Pass: The Real Craps Odds
Craps can appear chaotic, but its main wagers follow fixed mathematical probabilities. The true odds of craps bets on Pass Line and Don’t Pass are usually expressed as house edges of 1.41% and 1.36% respectively. These percentages represent long-run loss across many wagers, not a prediction that losing A$100 in one session is inevitable or guaranteed.
Both wagers begin with the come-out roll, but each takes the opposite position once a point is established. Pass Line follows the shooter, while Don’t Pass works against the shooter after the point. Craps is less widespread than pokies in Australian pubs and clubs, yet licensed land-based casinos in Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and other cities may offer it.
Come-out rolls and point bets
On the come-out roll, Pass Line wins on 2, 3, 7 or 11. It loses on 2, 3 or 12. Don’t Pass wins on 2 or 3, loses on 7 or 11, and pushes when the result is 12. That push returns the wager rather than deciding the round.
When 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10 appears, that number becomes the point. Pass Line then wins if 7 rolls before the point and loses if the point appears first. Don’t Pass reverses those outcomes. For another perspective on the terminology, the craps odds reference can be compared with the property’s own printed rules.
The mathematical difference
A house edge is the casino’s theoretical advantage as a percentage of total action. It is separate from the stated payout and from the odds of an individual dice combination. Under standard rules, the common comparison is:
| Measure | Pass Line | Don’t Pass |
|---|---|---|
| Come-out win | 2, 3, 7 or 11 | 2 or 3 |
| Come-out loss | 2, 3 or 12 | 7 or 11 |
| Come-out push | None | 12 |
| After a point is set | 7 before the point wins | Point before 7 wins |
| Standard house edge | 1.41% | 1.36% |
| Expected loss per A$100 wagered | A$1.41 | A$1.36 |
On A$100 of total action, the expected difference is approximately five cents. That does not determine an individual session: variance can produce a much larger gain or loss over a short period. Craps history, visual patterns and a perceived “hot shooter” do not alter the established probabilities.
Odds payouts and stake control
Some casinos offer an additional odds bet after a point is established. If paid at the full mathematical rate, the common returns are 2:1 for 2 and 12, 3:1 for 3 and 11, 5:1 for 4 and 10, 7:1 for 5 and 9, and 9:1 for 6 and 8. These odds concern the contest between the point and 7, rather than the main Pass Line or Don’t Pass decision.
A correctly paid odds wager has no inherent house edge, but it does not remove the edge already attached to the main bet. It increases the amount exposed and therefore increases the expected dollar loss over many rounds. Reduced odds, promotional limits or property-specific conditions can also make the actual return worse, so the payout rules should be checked before placing the second wager.
Craps in an Australian casino
Craps is legal at licensed land-based casinos operating under state and territory regulatory systems. Availability differs considerably between properties, and a casino known for blackjack, baccarat or pokies may not always schedule craps. Stakes are generally expressed in Australian dollars, making an A$10 unit easy to compare with other casino games.
The federal Interactive Gambling Act 2006 makes it illegal for operators to offer prohibited online casino-style services to Australian customers. An offshore website should therefore not be treated as equivalent to a locally licensed venue. CasinoPoker’s feature on new casino win big can provide promotional context, but no featured win changes the underlying probabilities or negates the house edge.
Make the Limit the Decision
Choose a wager after checking the posted rules, not because of recent results. Set a fixed loss limit—such as A$40 for a session—and divide it into manageable units rather than increasing wagers to recover an earlier result. A Don’t Pass push is also only a returned stake, not protection against a longer-term loss.
Before placing any wager, choose your A$ limit, set a timer and leave when either boundary is reached. If gambling becomes difficult to control, contact the 24-hour Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 for free, confidential support.
